This information is reproduced courtesy of Demos
A changing workforce
In 1989 the DIY retailer B&Q opened an outlet in Macclesfield. The new store enjoyed low turnover of staff, low levels of absenteeism, high profits and soon established a positive image in the local community. It was also staffed entirely by over 50s. The success of this organisational experiment pushed the company to develop its over- 50s recruitment policy, and it now boasts that of a total staff of 37,000, 22 per cent are over 50.
This story is both illuminating and unusual - illuminating because it indicates one of a number of important ways in which the workforce is changing in the UK, but unusual because man organisations have been far slower than B&Q to respond to shifting demographics.
This chapter explores the implications of those changing demographics in relation to recruitment. It argues that:
Changing demographics
By 2010, only 20 per cent of the UK's full-time workforce will comprise white, able-bodied men under 45.29 Over the coming years, the workforce is set to become far more diverse, reflecting trends towards an ageing population, greater ethnic diversity and more women taking up positions in paid work.
Yet research also indicates that there is much more to be done if people from all backgrounds, ages and family circumstances are to participate successfully in work in the future. The Government's Equalities Review identified a host of persistent ‘employment penalties' (see box 2) suggesting that social factors rather than personal choice still dictate many people's career progression.
Box 2 The employment penalty30
An employment penalty is a measure of the disadvantage that individuals or groups face in the labour market. For instance, when we say that the employment penalty for disabled people is 29 per cent, this means that disabled people are 29 percentage points less likely to be in work than non-disabled people with otherwise similar characteristics, such as age and ethnicity, the level of educational qualifications and family composition.
The presence of this penalty suggests that disability really does reduce people's job chances, but it is not clear from this analysis alone what causes the problem - whether disabled people are unable to work, whether they genuinely prefer not to work, or whether employers discriminate against them.
The employment penalty is therefore different from - and in most cases smaller than - the overall gap in employment rates. It is of course important to be aware of this overall gap, since the fact that part of it is attributable to factors such as different educational qualification rates does not make it any less real.
As the findings from the review indicated, making sure that equality of opportunity means something in practice requires far more than the freedom to apply for a job - it relates to our everyday perceptions and experiences as well as to formal rights and responsibilities. If someone feels discouraged from applying for a role in a particular organisation or industry because of the culture of that organisation or industry then that matters. Because genuine equality must take account of real-world experiences as well as a set of theoretical notions. This position is fast becoming accepted by those across the political spectrum. As David Cameron argued recently:
The fact is that it's not enough just to open the door to ethnic minorities. If people look in and see an all-white room they are less likely to hang around. An unlocked door is not the same as a genuine invitation to come in.31
These issues represent an important set of future challenges for organisations and recruitment companies looking to fill vacancies - and for any government interested in creating a society in which people determine their own life chances.
You can get your policy right and your brochure in place, but it's the culture that really matters. Culture and reputation - they're what people make judgements on.
Interviewee, employer
An ageing population
One of the most obvious and predictable shifts in the nature of the workforce in the coming years is that it will age. The combination of declining birth rates and greater longevity means that by 2030 the number of people aged 50 and over will have reached 46 per cent of the total UK population, rising from 33 per cent in 2002.32
In simple terms, this suggests that employers will need to attract and retain greater numbers of older staff than in the past.To add to this, though, there is a set of trends that are likely to see members of that generation themselves more amenable to the idea of working beyond the traditional retirement age. Changes to the pensions system are likely to make a longer working life a necessity for many people, while there is evidence to suggest that the ‘baby boomer' generation is likely to be less inclined to give up work than its predecessors.33
The pensions crisis is an opportunity for us in many ways - we're going to need that generation to fill jobs.
Interviewee, recruiter
Ethnic diversity
As the UK's population ages, it seems likely that migration will be required to fill the gap left by people who are either scaling down their working hours or retiring altogether. The government's own predictions suggest that between now and 2020 net migration will account for more than 40 per cent of growth in the working-age population.34 The effect of this is that by 2020 8 per cent of the workforce will be from an ethnic minority (compared with around 6 per cent today).35
However, within the ‘ethnic minority population' there are wide variations in levels of educational achievement and success within the labour market, which make it difficult to talk in general terms. Among those born in this country, people from Indian and Chinese backgrounds are likely to outperform those with Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Caribbean heritage36 in both education and employment. And, as figure 7 indicates, the picture where immigration is concerned becomes incredibly complex.
All this combines to make ‘diversity' an important matter in both economic and social terms, but also a hugely complex one. This raises two issues: first, that organisations may become more ‘diverse', while some groups are left behind. And second, that public policy (and language) must find ways of reflecting the huge levels of differentiation within the ‘ethnic minority' population.
There's a lot of woolly thinking around terms like ‘diversity' and ‘ethnic minorities'. There's such variation between these communities that they [the terms] can sometimes be close to meaningless.
Interviewee, employer
Women in the workforce
Another key change is the continuing trend for more women to enter the workforce. In the UK the numbers of women in work has risen from 59 per cent in 1980 to 70 per cent today.37 Now, the numbers of men and women at work are almost equal, with men performing 12.8 million jobs and women 12.7 million, though almost half of these are part time. And casting forward, the evidence available suggests that by 2020 women will account for 80 per cent of workforce growth.
But men and women still follow very different career paths. Almost a quarter of women in work do administrative or secretarial work, while men are more likely to be managers, senior officials or work in skilled trades.38 In part, this funnelling of women into certain roles and industries can be explained by the role of women as primary carers at home. The Other Glass Ceiling published by Demos in 2006 showed that women still shoulder a disproportionate amount of the burden in the home - looking after children, managing the household and maintaining social networks - whether or not they are in paid work.39 And women who do work often choose jobs that offer flexibility - for example they are care assistants, check-out managers or domestics.
The recent Equalities Review placed mothers as one of the top three groups facing ‘large and persistent unemployment', showing that mothers (with partners) are 40 per cent less likely to be in work than their male counterparts.40 Those women who work continue to be paid less than men - the UK boasts the highest gender pay gap in Europe, despite having the third highest female employment rate.41 Combined with the high cost of childcare this provides adequate disincentive for women to enter or return to work.
Key tensions
Traditional vs. future talent pool
The extent of the demographic changes in the coming years will mean that organisations will need to find new and better ways of widening the social groups that they recruit from - whether that applies to attracting candidates from different ethnic backgrounds, or finding ways to connect with working mothers or baby boomers.
As we discuss below, the extent to which these changes create a generic ‘business case' for diversity is questionable - businesses may still find some groups easier to reach than others - but the need to connect with a more diverse range of potential candidates looks clear.
The ‘business case' for diversity vs. the statistics
The demographic trends indicate that organisations in all sectors are likely to see their workforces diversify to some extent in the coming years. The effects of population changes and new legislation suggest that this will happen in part through the market and in part because of new rules designed to stamp out prejudice and discrimination. However, the painfully slow rate of progress in this area suggests that this combination of market forces and prohibitive legislation will not on their own lead to much more than incremental change in the workforces of many organisations and industries. ‘Promoting diversity', something that surely means more than ‘eliminating discrimination', suggests something more positive than this: the leader of the Conservative party has described this as moving beyond the unlocked door to the genuine invitation to come in.
A key question (which we return to in more detail in chapter 7) is whether individual organisations will have the time, finance and motivation to extend this invitation to all communities. In short, is there really a ‘business case for diversity', as is often argued? Will the market create the kind of opportunity and integration that most people in society regard as important?
Macroeconomic vs. social analysis of immigration
Despite economic success, immigration remains a contested and emotive political subject. A recent survey showed that only 5 per cent of the public think that immigration laws should be relaxed or abolished, while 74 per cent believe there are too many immigrants in the UK. Only 18 per cent disagree with this claim.42 These statistics show the social tensions that remain around immigration, reflecting two key factors:
The implication of this is that macroeconomic analysis of the overall benefits of immigration43 does not guarantee positive attitudes towards more open borders in the coming years. Rather, strategies will need to be found which reflect people's economic and social concerns if the talent pool from abroad is not to dry up.
Further reading…
Recruitment 2020: Social challenges beyo...
Recruitment 2020 An Executive Summary
